Thursday, 7 May 2009

An actual winrate

When the 'win' is a positive number. Hurrah!

Since my previous whinging, I have been absolutely crushing NL50. Which is good, as I should be. It's just that recently a bit of normality has returned and I have been allowed to win some large pots. This level of poker I have mixed feelings about. It can be a complete nit fest of drab, boring, preflop cooler poker. It can at times be a frustrating limp fest where it's very hard to define hands. It is usually always a completely retarded min raising competition post flop, with it being hugely profitable to notice who is doing it when and where, and either as a bluff or for value. The regulars are really bad (compared to what I've had to deal with) and it's easy to take exploitative lines. It's nigh on impossible to win a hand without showdown unless you are in a heads up pot with one of the very best hand readers at NL50. Most regs are so tight anyway they are showdown bound with their 88 or whatever crap is good in that spot like 5% of the time. Consequently my red line (non showdown) now looks gay like Ben's, but conversely the showdown line has gone boom! Tilt is also a much bigger factor down at the micros. It can however every once in a while, be completely hilarious. Some of the beats I have seen dished out have kept me sane. 'I put you on AK' will forever be a timeless classic.

It's obviously beatable (I'm playing 10 tables too, so some poker could be better) but certainly not as much as it was. Even a couple of years ago when I was building my roll things were much easier. I still recognise some names that I played all that time ago, still with the same leaks and making the same mistakes. I feel for anyone coming through now, things are really, really hard. I have tons and tons of experience and possess the knowledge to get out of the micros, but even to even the most intelligent and adaptive newcomer, it could well be an expensive quest. Anyway, I'm rambling.

I'm now even for NLHE for the month, and even with the recent good run I'm still missing a few hundred quid in EV. PLO is just ridiculous though. I am 100% sure I crush the game long run. And I do mean CRUSH, at least at PLO50 and PL100. I continually get it in either good, or very good and lose. I'm missing £1k in EV at PLO but it's important to recognise that this is expected value. Hit the boomswitch and I could easily be over a grand to the good. I shall be sticking to NLHE for the rest of the month to hopefully build back a decent roll.

This is the first time in the Laddies rake race that I've been able to play the first week of the month. In March it was getting my money moved onto the site, and in April I was making my way back to the UK and was unable to play. I'm currently 20th with ~500 points which is ~$2k in rake. That's 30k hands of poker in just a week. This month could well be my biggest ever volume wise. Also considering that 80% of my play has been at NL50, yet only 66% of my rake is from NL50, it is obviously hugely advantageous in the rake race for me to be playing higher. From what I can deduce it's a 2x jump to NL100, then a 1.5x jump again to NL200. At my current winrate I need about 10k more hands to be effectively rolled for NL100 again (damn the poor £) then if I can sustain a decent winrate there and continue at current rate of play, I could be on for a monster finish in the rake race. Even if I don't get out of NL100 this month, 30k hands a week should still secure top 15 which would be a minimum of $6k. Hopefully today will see this right and I shall be back at NL100 for the weekend of recreational players staying in to 'save money' after the bank holiday ;-)

I knew what I had to do but writing it down here, and with my new found sobreity and extra energy from actually doing some exercise, I feel really focused for a hard month's graft. Gogogogogogo!!!

2 comments:

Amatay said...
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Amatay said...
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